Archiv der Kategorie: Trends

Future topics, trends and scenarios are discussed in this section.

To whom belongs the progress?

Let us forget for a moment the rights holders of basic technique such as ploughing, cutting and hacking – even if these are inventions that have put mankind on the path we are still following today. Language and scripture enable us to express our thoughts without having currently to pay licenses or fees for the speaking and writing – if we forget for a moment the publishing media. Antibiotics were already used by the ancient Egyptians. Only the publication of Alexander Fleming and the widespread use in the Second World War led to today’s usage of penicillin. Or remember the graphical user interface for which the whole world thanks Steve Jobs, although the original Eureka had Xerox. In the past, the biggest problem was not knowing a particular solution. Today there are applications that solve difficult situations, but belong to individual companies that decide whether and at what price they are available. Just think of the medical compound of Ocrelizumab, which cost as part of the treatment of active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) a tenth of today’s price in a MS therapy. Shouldn’t life-prolonging things be available independently of economic calculations?

Who actually owns all the progress that is being made? And who can decide on its application? Possible candidates are the following.

  • Discoverer/Inventor
    In the interests of further progress, the originators should be remunerated for their efforts. However, this does not mean that they should have long-term power to decide on further use or to determine the pricing according to the laws of supply and demand.
  • Enterprises
    Even companies that have invested in research over a long period of time are entitled to compensation for their efforts. The reward for their research should not only be limited to successful discoveries, but should also be given for developments that have not yet resulted in the desired outcome. This eliminates the arguments for exaggerated commercialization.
  • State
    As a representative of the population, state agencies would be the ideal jurisdiction, if they would not pursue national interests. A cautionary example of where this “We first” leads to, we can currently observe. Such state dictatorships are not adequate stewards of progress.
  • Humankind
    All that remains is the entire humanity. Fundamental developments, such as certain medicines, the Internet and common goods (e.g. roads, railways, water sources, energy producers, electricity and communication networks), used by all, should not be managed by corporations but be fairly made available by neutral organizations that are obliged to the commonalty.

Bottom line: The fact that progress is not fairly distributed due to the economization is not progress, but a step back into prehistoric times, when certain classes were responsible for the common good – with, from today’s point of view, boundless ignorance of the needs of the general public. The artefacts still visible today are due to this use of human lives – hundreds of thousands deaths in the building of the Chinese wall; Tens of thousands fatalities in the construction of the Panama Canal. After losing a committing moral, corporations exploit innovations nowadays without hesitation in order to let their own golden calf continue to grow. Even if you’re not the inventor of a user interface, you are uninhibited in suing your competitors, if they also become inspired by others. In the end they only act according to the law books – or better within its gaps. Every gap that lawyers uncover is used to create personal value outside the law. If the prosperity of some increases, this ALWAYS happens at the expense of others. However, since eventually everyone will be affected by the collapse of the whole, sooner or later there will be an institution that will take care of the fair distribution, because progress belongs to all.

The look into the future

Our utterances are naturally limited to what we can express with words, images and other means. The resulting signs are accessible to everybody in different ways. And although we know that there are people who lack certain sensory channels, for example when they are blind or deaf, we can hardly imagine that we lack other channels. Thus, Rudolf Steiner speaks of the ability to perceive in the spiritual world – which is not granted to everybody, we do not allow ourselves or because we simply do not notice it. Like there is spiritual blindness, some lack the ability of looking into the future. And if someone has this gift, then he gets advised: If you have visions, you should go to the doctor. A look into the future is a basic prerequisite for designing the present so that you arrive in the desired future.

For all those, who lack the practice of anticipating the future, we have a look at different forms of foresight.

  • Vision
    The vision is the visualized impression of a future picture. It offers a snapshot of the introduced prospective conditions – next year, in ten years or even further ahead. Conditions are disseminated in a way that someone expects or fears that are utopias or dystopias. The aim is to inspire or frighten people. The target group completes the missing descriptions of these emotional futures with its own details. This creates a profound effect on them which, eventually, engulfs them emotionally – downwards in a negative vicious circle or self-reinforcing in a positive upward spiral.
    In order to achieve this effect, a meaningful sentence is needed that tells those affected, what to do, for whom and when.
  • Scenario
    The various outlines are elaborated visions with more content. For this purpose the political, economical, social, technological, ecological or legal influences are determined and combined into various drafts with different characteristics. The result should be clearly distinguishable extremes – the best possible and the worst possible. For the individual outlines, appropriate supporting and counteractive measures are developed subsequently.
    Effective scenarios have no limitations on how strongly the individual variables of the influences can evolve.
  • Strategy
    The scheme for the future is developed taking into account a preferred vision of the future. Here you find further details of the vision, mission, common basic understanding, strategic direction, goals and core. It uses a roadmap to connect the present with the introduced future. Ongoing activities are kept on track by orienting annual scheduling accordingly.
    The quality of the route into the day after tomorrow is reflected in its progress, i.e. the continuous approaching to the desired state.
  • Story
    Storytelling is so popular because it provides a target-group-oriented narrative. In the story, the feelings of the vision mingle with the detailed picture of the scenarios and the timeline of the strategy. The aim is to inspire the audience and encourage them to participate.
    The story draws its strength from the common thread that remains in the memory and is carried by word of mouth, without additional marketing measures, from one to the other. This transmission preserves the original message, even if it continues to evolve through new subtleties. At the same time, it can be easily linked to one’s own reality, which means that it is reused more often.

Bottom line: It is impossible to know the future, as the forthcoming influencing factors are unknown in advance. A good example is the Internet, which has brought such a surprising shift in reality to the whole of humanity. What we can master, however, is to anticipate the future and then actively strive for it with actions. Most things emerge covertly, as can be seen with Ludwig Kapeller, who described the concept of immersion as early as 1926, just when the first electronic mass media came into being. Less than a hundred years later, many people regularly dive into the virtual reality of their computer.
It is up to you, whether and how you look ahead: with a vision, with scenarios, the defined strategy or a well told story. It is crucial to allow oneself this view into the future. This is the only way to MAKE it real.