Schlagwort-Archive: Unintended consequences

Reducing unintended consequences

The increasing complexity of tasks inevitably results in narrowing of the perspective of the acting persons. Increasing time and cost pressure prevent us from thinking outside the box. This increases the unintended consequences and burdens the desired effect. Nobody can afford to look beyond the box anymore. Good examples can be found in politics – when climate protection has to fight with nature conservation for space to install wind turbines; when the health of consumers is endangered by the extensive use of glyphosate in agriculture; when power supply lines are impeded by local residents; when traffic cannot be diverted because other disadvantages emerge; when temporary employment models and the promotion of the low-wage sector increase the risk of poverty now and in the future. The social need for further development is prevented by interests of few. That way, the parties involved are mutually depriving each other of a desirable future.

In order to secure creative leeway, the outcomes of measures must be recognized and dealt with at an early stage – whether they are intended or not or not even the direct consequence of the doing. They influence the acting persons through evolved or designed activities, the selected target groups or unforeseen third parties, i.e. everyone. The difficulties arise from a lack of foresight and awareness of the weaknesses, which are:

  • The missing overview
    It comes from the quality of the available data that, in the absence of current data from the future, are mainly extrapolated from the past into the future. On the other hand, the quantity and complexity of the available knowledge as well as the resulting butterfly effect make it impossible to provide reliable predictions.
  • The persistence of old solutions
    The habit of copying old things and reusing them in a rash way leads to solutions that no longer fit the current circumstances – like the administrative tasks that continue to be paper-based.
  • The suppress of existing interests
    The expectations of stakeholders remain unconsidered and, despite everything, influence the results – as soon as, above all, the decisive stakeholders are not involved.
  • The cognitive distortions of the participants
    The tendency of the actors to put their own goals above those of the whole leads to distortions that burden the result – if the participants do not align to each other

In order to get the weak points under control, it needs the conscious consideration of the task. It is already enough to go through the following steps.

  • To work out the initial situation with those concerned, so that everyone has a common view.
  • To describe in brief the purpose, in order to convey the raison d’être to the parties involved.
  • Anchoring a snapshot of the desired future with everyone so that they can act coherently on their own.
  • Prepare a comprehensive proceeding that avoids pragmatically restrictive approaches with their unwanted surprises.
  • Once the activities are prepared, they should be cross-checked: Are the actors known? Is the purpose described? Do the circumstances fit? Are the planned, visible actions appropriate?
  • If further influences are now being carefully sought during execution, unintended consequences should occur less frequently and identified stumbling blocks should be eliminated early on.

Bottom line: Today’s way of working leads to the situation that neither the time nor the means are available to think outside the box. This means that threatening surprises remain undetected for the time being and cannot be eliminated at an early stage. In order to better manage these unintended consequences, it is advisable to address the above-mentioned aspects: clarify the facts; make the purpose tangible; formulate the vision; keep the approach flexible; check the coherence of the measures; and eventually, work through everything carefully. In addition, the requirements of modern management continue to apply – clear objectives, defined roles, fixed time and cost budgets, etc. Looking at ALL the above elements, the unintended consequences should be reduced.

Purposes, their means and unwanted partners

Wheels first appeared on a Sumerian drinking cup as early as 5 millennia ago. The wheel was not known in America and Australia until the Europeans brought it in. The outer surface has always the same distance from the center and serves one purpose, namely to be round. Thus, the wheel offers the revolutionary property of being able to roll – and it is getting better and better over the millennia. Only in combination with other parts, besides the beauty of the wheel, its far-reaching benefits are revealed – especially the transport of goods and people. Is the roundness enough or does it need more for creating an effect?

Diverse purposes make a higher sense in the interaction with other things.

  • The purpose
    The raison d’être is the reason for the existence of something or someone. The purpose of a wheel, i.e. being round, has inspired inventors to further develop the rounding and construction again and again, up to ideas like the spokeless wheel in the Cyclotron.
    In the company, delivers the purpose the answer to the question Why does the business exist? – It provides the polar star of the organization, which ensures that the leaders and the employees develop their decisions and actions in a common direction. If the actual events no longer fit the common purpose, the efforts of the many activities mutually rescind each other and the enterprise loses its momentum.
    On the one hand, an assignment consists of the mission, the question What has to be done? and, on the other hand, of the purpose, the Why? – Therewith it is not only clear, what to focus on, but you also get reasons for developing passion. You not only learn how to saw, screw and sew, but you also develop a yearning for the vastness of the sea – while building a boat.
  • The purpose of the purposes
    The example of the wheel shows that the purpose can be very special – like flawless roundness. Impact is achieved when the wheel is connected to other parts that also have a purpose in its own right – the load compartment, the axle, the drawbar, the cab, etc. And thus a vehicle evolves that can transport goods and people from A to B. The overarching purpose arises from several ones on the higher level – for example, the transport from A to B. If you add a cannon to the vehicle and the chassis is made bulletproof, we get a tank that is used as a weapon in battle. As soon as weapons are used in an attack, we are in a warlike conflict with the purpose to win.
    This nesting of purposes is particularly confusing, if they are not openly stated. Again, if the purposes at the different levels do not fit together, they undermine each other and generate idle performance.
  • Means to an end
    The speed with which the purpose is sought determines the means required. These are the resources needed along the way: e.g. people, materials, finances, buildings, equipment, logistics, etc. Since resources are always limited and everyone is seeking for the scarce resources, it is always necessary to consider, where it is most useful.
    As soon as a purpose is merged with a greater one, it becomes a means to the superordinate one. The means always have an additional, separate purpose that is incorporated into the overall purpose.
  • Unintended purposes
    However, the activities do not only lead to the desired results – for example, when a truck becomes a weapon by being turned into a military mount. Often, effects occur that are not intended and in the worst case have not even been foreseen. These unintended consequences have the disadvantage that the original purpose fades into the background and the new consumes the sparse resources and you suddenly have responsibility for something that you never wanted.
    The unintended consequences are the surprises that make the best plan obsolete. For this reason, unintended side effects should always be taken into account, when considering the purpose, as they may have a major impact.

Bottom line: The purpose is an important aspect of all action. Especially in business, it offers a great boost, as the parties involved draw from it their intrinsic motivation for the realization. The difficulty lies in the multiplicity of purposes that clash and result in unforeseen effects. Different purposes are competing with each other at the same and different levels. The overarching purpose is the guiding star that shows the direction to those involved. Taking into account the available resources, the probability increases that the desired results will be achieved. If you then look beyond the box, you quickly recognize obvious, unintended purposes to which you should react with appropriate measures. Perhaps it is now easier to understand how important it is to consciously consider the purposes, their means and the unintended consequences.