Sometimes we simply misestimate

After a two-week visit in Japan, the production manager of a bolt manufacturer decided to transform the pond in his garden to a water lily pond. The special kind of flower that he received doubled weekly. Since only half of the pond should be covered, the gardener recommended calling early enough. On August 24, the manager was completely surprised that the entire pond was covered with water lilies. Sometimes we simply misestimate. When was the right time to call the gardener?

waterlilies

Such questions become even more difficult for time-lagged effects that result from our actions. Let us take a second example.

Our production manager has 100 employees, who produce screws and nuts in two shifts. After some organizational changes, he discovers in his monthly meeting that five employees are dissatisfied. The HR department reports that one unsatisfied employee is followed within every two weeks by an additional one. The company pursues the principle, if a quarter of the staff is frustrated, they must initiate an organizational development (OD). To prevent the OD, the production manager decides to have prophylactically every two weeks a conversation with two discontented employees. Each dialogue is successful. When does he get the situation under control?

The inventor of chess already exploited the inability of imagining the exponential developments for his own benefit. He demanded the Indian ruler Shihram as a reward for the invention of the chess game grains of wheat. On the first field of the chessboard one, on second two, on third four and so on with duplications. The ruler agreed immediately. Only after days, the computing masters of the ruler determined an insane number of wheat grains (see  http://www.chess.com/news/a-beautiful-story-of-chess-1078 ).

As the Indian ruler, we misestimate dynamic developments. Did you estimate that the gardener should have been coming on August 23? (If on the 24. the entire pond is covered, a day before, it should only be half covered. Do you agree?).

By the way. Since the production manager started the dialogues only after two weeks, he already has to initiate an organizational development after six weeks.

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